Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 19.837379 21.577630 23.500620 25.803258 28.513081 31.636667 35.564010
2024-12-22 17.106682 19.363877 22.040915 25.520175 30.035782 35.876962 44.343490
2024-12-29 15.278834 17.796303 20.941765 25.299446 31.435859 40.246066 54.982579
2025-01-05 13.965713 16.626214 20.088426 25.141518 32.775993 44.851260 68.272531
2025-01-12 12.819752 15.505888 19.107931 24.578483 33.321940 48.341583 81.860702
2025-01-19 12.365617 15.234529 19.220177 25.573961 36.484601 57.468223 115.722011
2025-01-26 11.658542 14.533597 18.620468 25.350148 37.500055 62.930378 148.259024
2025-02-02 11.134529 14.036968 18.254895 25.425803 39.052648 70.325268 203.821480
2025-02-09 10.712270 13.646414 17.999904 25.632330 40.896865 79.546697 305.411994
2025-02-16 10.309472 13.249963 17.691018 25.688747 42.440145 89.088613 492.898508
2025-02-23 9.877662 12.778587 17.218430 25.378896 43.100984 96.524801 817.856362
2025-03-02 9.553889 12.448534 16.943829 25.396592 44.531348 108.076077 2148.062754
2025-03-09 9.204084 12.062604 16.554957 25.163237 45.351357 118.566358 20541.584936
2025-03-16 8.876854 11.693849 16.168211 24.889636 46.023816 129.619697 NaN
2025-03-23 8.587213 11.368402 15.831405 24.677008 46.825480 142.927822 NaN
2025-03-30 8.330675 11.081791 15.540833 24.525117 47.776431 159.280930 NaN
2025-04-06 8.032810 10.715263 15.088319 23.984772 47.468014 167.461118 NaN
2025-04-13 7.981137 10.740328 15.322407 24.939458 52.051716 227.324924 NaN
2025-04-20 7.764181 10.485955 15.040391 24.724850 52.814774 256.642806 NaN
2025-04-27 7.600879 10.312084 14.892803 24.797367 54.618600 310.602408 NaN
2025-05-04 7.464080 10.175520 14.804165 24.995338 56.983239 397.498998 NaN
2025-05-11 7.316962 10.015211 14.661345 25.049409 58.859888 507.284874 NaN
2025-05-18 7.135276 9.789876 14.384434 24.752380 59.256246 593.383019 NaN